THE SCHEDULE:        Seattle Pacific at NCAA Division II West Regionals
                                         Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015
                                         Women's 6K, 10:00 a.m.    Men's 8K, 11;15 a.m.
                                         Ash Creek Preserve / Monmouth, Ore.
                                         No live Webcast or live results
 
 
        Weekly release, with complete updated season results (PDF)
 
SEATTLE – No more tune-up races. No more "There's always next week."
 
If the Seattle Pacific Falcons want to make it to the NCAA national cross country meet, it comes down to this week and this race.
 
Period. Exclamation point.
 
The Falcon women will put their season-long dreams and goals at stake on Saturday morning when they step to the starting line at the NCAA Division II West Regionals. Their 6-kilometer run at Western Oregon University's Ash Creek Preserve begins at 10:00 a.m.
 
The SPU men, who already have beaten expectations at the conference level, are seeking to do so again at regionals, and will compete in their 10K event at 11:15.
 
DRESS APPROPRIATELY – IT'S LIKELY TO BE WET
For the first time this fall – in fact, for the first time since last fall – runners probably will be racing in the rain, and fans will have to bring their umbrellas, jackets, and a dry pair of shoes and socks with them.
 
The weekend forecast calls for mostly cloudy but dry on Friday when everyone is getting into town and athletes are practicing on the Ash Creek course. Rain is supposed to move in by Saturday, although it might hold off untiil the afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be in the low 40s, and will be pushing toward the mid 50s on Saturday. The thermometer at race time is expected to be in the mid to upper 40s
 
SPU hasn't faced rainy conditions since October 11, 2014, at the Western Washington Classic in Bellingham. The Falcons even got through the entire 2015 spring outdoor track and field season without getting wet on competition days.

MAKING THE CUT
While finishing high enough to make the NCAA field is difficult, this is the one team sport where the runners decided it for themselves, rather than having to rely on rankings.
 
Each of the eight Division II regions around the country is guaranteed three places in the 32-team field. That accounts for 24 teams. The other eight spots are allocated based on how many teams from each region finished in the top eight at the previous year's national meet.
                     
The West women get five berths by virtue of Simon Fraser placing seventh and Alaska Anchorage taking eighth last in 2014. The only region with more than that is the Midwest (six). The West men get one extra berth (for a total of four), as Anchorage placed sixth last fall.
 
An individual runner can qualify if he or she finishes in the top five overall, or is one of the top three finishers from a non-qualifying team, regardless of overall place.
 
That individual qualifying task is extremely tough. Last November in Billings, SPU's Anna Patti was seventh overall. In either her freshman or sophomore year, that would have gotten her into nationals if the Falcons hadn't made it as a team (they did both times). But last year, in spite of how high she finished, three runners whose teams didn't advance finished ahead of her, so those slots went to them.

SO WHAT'S THE STORY THIS WEEK?
-- The SPU women will be racing for their 17th NCAA trip. Their last one was in 2013, the second of back-to-back trips.
-- If the Falcons do make the cut, it will be their 20th overall trip to nationals. Their first three trips were to the Association of Intercollegiate Athletics for Women (AIAW) meet in 1979, 1980, and 1981.
-- This is the 13th year in a row that the women have been to West Regionals.
-- SPU was 12th among 24 teams last year, totaling 282 points.
-- The team won regional titles in 1996 and 2007. In addition, the women have had five second-place finishes, three thirds, and five fourths.
-- One of those fourth-place finishes was in Spokane in 2013, which was high enough to make nationals.
-- Anna Patti, Sarah Macdonald, Lynelle Decker, and Hannah Calvert all ran on that team.
-- Patti, Macdonald, Decker, and Calvert all raced last year's regionals in Billings, Mont. Also back from that race is sophomore Jessica Rawlins.
-- The SPU men are back at regionals after missing out last year.
-- Seniors Adam Avischious and Brian Comer are the only two from that team who are running in Saturday's race.
-- Falcons junior David McLeod will be back on his former home course. McLeod competed for Western Oregon as a freshman and sophomore before transferring to SPU this past January.





SCOUTING THE NCAA WEST REGION WOMEN
The general consensus is that the West has at least eight, and perhaps nine teams with a legitimate chance of grabbing one.
 
Right off the top, it is assumed that three of those five spots are safely spoken for: One by GNAC champion Alaska Anchorage, one by CCAA champion Chico State, and one by Pacific West champion Cal Baptist. All of them won their respective conference meets with room to spare, and there's no reason to think that any of them are suddenly going to fall apart on Saturday.
 
That leaves two spots remaining. If the Falcons, who finished fifth at GNAC, want one of them, they'll have to beat out the likes of Western Washington, UC San Diego, Azusa Pacific, possibly Point Loma, Cal State San Bernardino, and even conference stablemates Simon Fraser and Central Washington.
 
So what will it take?

 

Senior Anna Patti (Renton, Wash. / Lindbergh HS) been the team's commanding front runner all season. She won her first three races, was second at the Charles Bowles Invitational (and, with another 20 or 30 meters, might have won that, too), then finished fourth at GNAC.
 
The Falcons are expecting a big boost from a healthier Sarah Macdonald. The junior from Tucson, Ariz., was having a fabulous fall as the team's No. 2 runner until a cold slowed her down at GNAC on Oct. 24. Since then, she has gotten back up to full speed during practice, and will be going for a spot somewhere in the top 20.
 
For Seattle Pacific, the real key will be what happens behind Macdonald. A group of five – junior Hannah Calvert (Enumclaw, Wash. / Enumclaw HS), sophomore Mary Charleson (Mill Creek, Wash. / Henry M. Jackson HS), senior Lynelle Decker (Vancouver, Wash. / Mountain View HS), sophomore Chynna Phan (Bellingham, Wash. / Mt. Baker HS), and sophomore Jessica Rawlins (Mill Creek, Wash. / Henry M. Jackson HS) – have been going back and forth with each other all season.
 
In five meets so far, four of those runners have finished in the No. 3 spot, with Calvert doing it twice. They've been as close together as 19 seconds; it was 20 seconds between them at GNAC.
 
Aside from Anchorage, Chico, and Cal Baptist, other contenders with solid packs are Western (56 seconds from Nos. 1-5, and 1:02 from 1-7 at GNAC), UC San Diego (41 seconds from Nos. 1-5, and 1:10 from 1-7 at CCAA) and Cal State San Bernardino (31 seconds from 1-5, and 1:20 from1-7).
 
Individual title contenders will include Anchorage's Joyce Chelimo, Azusa's Eileen Stressling (the Pac West winner), Cal Baptist's Caroline Barkechir (Pac West runner-up and 2014 regional runner-up), and Chico's McCall Habermehl and Sadie Gastelum, who went 1-2 at CCAA.





SCOUTING THE NCAA WEST REGION MEN
This will be the last cross country race for Falcon seniors Adam Avischious and Brian Comer, although both of them still have indoor and outdoor track still to come.
 
But for the five other Falcons on the course, it will be a chance to gain some valuable experience in a race that is big both in size (last year's included 23 teams and 152 runners) and stature.
 
Seattle Pacific comes in off of some momentum from the GNAC Championships. A preseason coaches poll had the Falcons tied for last in the conference, but they beat out two of the teams picked ahead of them.

 

Sophomore Ben Halladay (Mukilteo, Wash. / Kamiak HS) has been the front runner for most of the season. He was the first SPU runner across the finish line in both Alaska Invitational races, at Sundodger, and again at the conference meet, placing 31st two weeks ago in Bellingham.

 

The only teammate to beat him this fall has been Avischious (Colorado Springs, Colo.), who delivered a strong performance at the Charles Bowles Invite on Oct. 3 in Salem. Comer (Sammamish, Wash. / Eastlake HS) has been a solid No. 3 all year.
 
Behind them has been another group of three that has been sticking together: junior Joseph Walker (Auburn, Wash. / Jefferson HS), freshman Brysten James (Warsaw, Ind.), and junior David McLeod (Burien, Wash. / Mount Rainier HS). They went 67-69-71 (in that order) at GNAC.
 
The team race has the potential to be a tight one between Alaska Anchorage, Chico State, and Cal Baptist. The Seawolves went 1-2-3 at GNAC, and had all five runners in the top nine on the way to just 21 points. But while Henry Cheseto, Dominik Notz, and Edwin Kangogo were separated by just 22 seconds at the front, the overall 1-to-5 spread was 67 seconds.
 
So that could open the door to Chico State, the CCAA champion with 24 points, and last year's West Region winner by a 30-53 margin ahead of Alaska Anchorage. The Wildcats went 1-2-6-7-8 in their conference meet, with a spread of just 43 seconds.
 
UAA's Cheseto is the defending region champion, and teammate Notz was No. 2 last November.
 
SPEAKING OF THE FALCONS
Assistant coach Chris Reed says …
(On the women leaving the GNAC meet behind them)
"There are two ways to respond to a (day like GNAC): One is you can get worried and start overthinking and start agonizing. The other response is to say, 'Well, that wasn't our best day, we know what we're capable of, so let's go out and show ourselves and everybody what we can do' The latter is what we've had."

 

(On who has to have a big race)
"Everybody has to have a big race. Anna Patti has been our consistent No. 1. She's going to need to be in a good spot to help our team scoring, and if she races that way, we'll have a really good start. Sarah was pretty ill at GNAC … but we're expecting a big bounceback. The way she has been training, we're hoping for her best race of the season. The rest of the group has learned to work well together. If that group can put themselves in the top 40, we'll have a really good shot (of qualifying)."
 
(On the men's meet)
"What we're going to look for with our guys is exactly what they did at conference: Put themselves in a good spot, compete hard all the way through, use each other, and in the last few kilometers be good racers and be good finishers."
 
Assistant coach Audra Smith says ...
(General thoughts on the meet)
"We're as prepared as we're going to be. We've been shooting for this day on the calendar since we started the season. They have everything they need. Now, it's all up to their brains and their feet."

 

(On who needs a big day)
"They all have to do it. In order for this to work, they all have to be running their best race of the entire season on Saturday at 10 o'clock."
 
(On the midset for regionals)
"One of the great things about the opportunity regionals gives us is all that matters is what you do at regionals. You could be last the entire season, but if you put it together on that day and race your tail off, you can do it.
 
FLAT AND FAST … AND VISIBLE
At the GNAC Championships two weeks ago, the course was well suited to cross country – mostly on trails with a good-sized hill on the back part of the loop around Bellingham's Lake Padden Park. However, except for the start, quick return loop around the starting area, and the finish, it wasn't a spectator-friendly layout.
 
Things will be different at Ash Creek Preserve. This was the site of the GNAC Championships from 2012-14, and it's as flat and open now as it was then. The challenging part comes on the back side where runners must scale a couple of small, rolling berms. They might not seem like much to the casual observer. But the runners will feel it, especially when it's the second time over them for the women on their 6K route, or the third time over for the men in their 10K race.
 
Fans will be able to see most of the race, whether they pick a spot and stay put, or move from point to point, as many cross country fans are wont to do.

Click here for the women's course map and here for the men's course map.
 
WHEN CHIPS ARE DOWN, DECKER DELIVERS
As someone who has raced in eight of a possible nine national meets between cross country, indoor track, and outdoor track during her first three years at SPU, it's safe to say that Lynelle Decker knows how to get the job done at crunch time.

 

Take indoor track, for instance. For three years in a row, Decker essentially secured an NCAA trip with a stirring performance in the SPU Final Qualifier. As a freshman and sophomore, it was in the 800 meters; last year, it was running the 800-meter leg on the distance medley relay.
 
On the outdoor oval, Decker came up huge in the 1,500 at GNAC to snag a national spot in that event as a freshman. Last year, with the Falcons in need of every point they could muster in their bid to grab the title back from Anchorage, Decker came from behind in the final strides to win the 1,500, then a short while later rallied from fifth place to take second in the 800. That played a big part as SPU eventually won by 29 points.
 
She has shown the same propensity on postseason cross country trails. Last year at GNAC, Decker had her best race when the Falcons really needed it, finishing No. 3 for the team to help secure a spot at West Regionals. As a sophomore, she was Seattle Pacific's No. 5 placer at conference, No. 4 at regionals, and No. 3 at nationals.
 
NOTEWORTHY NEWBIES
Although the Falcon women returned a mostly veteran team for 2015, there was still an opening or two in the top 7 for anyone who wanted to run for it.

 

Sophomores Mary Charleson and Chynna Phan have done exactly that. Last year, Phan was No. 8 among Seattle Pacific's 10 runners at GNAC, and Charleson was 10th. Neither of them raced at regionals.
 
This year, both have shown they're capable of leading the pack behind front runners Anna Patti and Sarah Macdonald. Phan was No. 3 at the Charles Bowles Invitational on Oct. 3. Then at GNAC two weeks ago in Bellingham, Charleson finished No. 2 for the Falcons, stepping up her performance in a big way on a day when Macdonald was battling a cold that slowed her down considerably.
 
On the other side, five of the seven Falcon men on Saturday will be new to the West Regional scene. Only seniors Adam Avischious and Brian Comer were on the last SPU regional squad (2013).
 
RANK 'EM … BUT DON'T COUNT ON 'EM
Sure, it's nice to be in the rankings, whether regionally or nationally. SPU has been in the former all season, and in the latter for a good part of the season, although not in the latest set that was released on Oct. 28 by the U.S. Track & Field and Cross Country Coaches Association (USTFCCA).
 
The Falcons are at No. 9 in the latest West Region rankings. On paper, that falls "below the red line," a term sometimes used in professional sports to designate who would get to move on and who wouldn't.

But it isn't determined on paper.

The last time the Falcons made the NCAA cut in 2013, they did so by finishing fourth at regionals in Spokane. They came into that meet ranked No. 7. Among the teams they beat out were Cal State Stanislaus and Cal Poly Pomona, ranked No. 4 and 5 coming into that meet. Neither advanced, as Western Washington snared the fifth and final spot.
 
Last year, when the West had six qualifying berths, Nos. 5 (Cal Poly Pomona) and 6 (Cal Baptist) missed out. Instead, No. 8-ranked Central Washington and No. 10 UC San Diego earned national tickets.
 
UP NEXT
The D2 nationals are set for Saturday, Nov. 21, at Missouri Southern in Joplin. The women's race begins at 8:00 a.m. Pacific time, and the men go at 9:15 a.m.
 
After that, the indoor track and field season begins in January. The first meet for the Falcons will be the UW Indoor Preview at Dempsey Indoor on the University of Washington campus.